Bitcoin continues its upward journey, but with a measured pace that marks a stark contrast to previous market cycles. According to analyst Rekt Capital, the cryptocurrency’s current trajectory remains bullish, though signs now point to a maturing trend that may soon approach exhaustion.
The current market statistics indicate that bitcoin has reached the end of the bull market, where an estimated 88% of the whole process has almost been achieved. The current rally is after one of the most extended re-accumulation periods ever witnessed after a halving that lasted nearly eight months. This long consolidation gave the market the opportunity to absorb previous gains and retrace according to the general historical trends.
In its history, Bitcoin has developed a particular pattern: a sharp rise, consolidation, and a sudden decline. This present cycle, although not as explosive, is just as such. Subsequently, despite attaining new local highs, the speed at which Bitcoin has been rising is considerably slower than in previous spikes in 2017 and 2021.
Technically, Bitcoin is above the $105,200 support line, which is a crucial point as analysts argue. The larger bull trend will be true as long as this level is maintained. In case of a gain by Bitcoin above $113,500, analysts propose a probable continuation into the segment of $130,000 to $150,000.
Nevertheless, the upside potential is increasingly reduced. To Rekt Capital, despite the fact that Bitcoin may still rise further, it is becoming increasingly likely that there might be a sudden downward spiral. At the moment, price history indicates that the market top may appear in October 2025, about 550 days after the previous halving. This is timely according to some past bull market demises, which further supports fears that the current run is coming to an end.
Notably, the probability of 60 to 70 percent survival after the high has now overtaken the results that can be expected. This is why the present phase is not only an opportunity, but also a phase of caution. It is suggested that traders should remember to pay attention to historical patterns instead of being optimistic about a longer cycle by 2026.
Bitcoin Maintains Positive Short-Term Outlook Despite Slowdown
Although the situation on the long-term map points to hazardous developments, the short-term setup of Bitcoin is bullish. The cryptocurrency accomplished a brand-new local high today and is demonstrating resistance over essential trendlines. At the latest trading data, Bitcoin was trading slightly above $107,280 and is trying to maintain itself at the level of $109,000.
Provided that the price is not below 107.280$, then they assume that no local top will appear yet. Moreover, a clean break above $113,500 may cause a new surge, and Bitcoin finds its way to the psychological level of $130,000.
The markets may experience a few further down ticks in the near term, but the higher low formations indicate that bulls are yet to relinquish the command. Further strength beyond $105,200 further supports this interpretation, which gives credence to a long-term advance in the following weeks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s bull market is intact but approaching its final stage. The current cycle is unfolding at a slower pace, allowing for healthier market behavior. With limited time left before a possible peak, caution is advised. Yet, as long as key levels hold, the outlook in the short term remains positive.
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