Hivemind is a Peer-to-Peer Oracle Protocol which absorbs accurate data into a blockchain so that Bitcoin-users can speculate in Prediction Markets. These markets have the potential to revolutionize the emergence and diffusion of knowledge in society.
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The Truthcoin blockchain is a Bitcoin-inspired proof-of-work blockchain which aims to impose different block validation rules on the original Satoshian cryptosystem. While the
Bitcoin blockchain is designed only to hold information about the ownership and transfer of a single coin-type, the Truthcoin blockchain is designed to contain information about the transfer of three coin-types (CashCoins, VoteCoins, and Shares11), as well as the
existence and state of Prediction Markets.
SVD does not handle missing values, so if any are present (despite a Voter incentive to
attend to each Decision), they are temporarily filled by reweighting the votes of everyone
who did vote and forcing the missing values to adopt this as their vote (see Appendix I).
This produces, the completed Vote Matrix. To measure coordination, Hivemind use the first score from a weighted principal components analysis. This column represents the degree to which each voter varied his or her votes with those of a theoretical voter maximally representative of the covariance across all votes and Voters.
After a round of voting, Branch VoteCoins are redistributed amongst all of the VoteCoin
accounts. Hivemind know where to send the redistributed VoteCoins, as each Ballot contains an new public key (destination address). For each account, smooth (weighted average) the value of the previous reputation vecto with the value represented by the new reputation vector ( ). For example,I suggest α=.20 (weighing the new value 20% and old value 80%). This parameter represents the dynamism of the voting environment: too low and an entrenched oligarchy can coast on inertia without punishment.
A coordination game is only a good model for the incentive scheme behind Truthcoin if
malicious coalitions cannot communicate with each other in advance (and conspire to vote on the same false answers). To prevent such communications, Truthcoin provides a strong incentive for Voters to lie (to each other) about what they plan to do (the “doubleagent incentive”), and votes must be kept private (or they can be “stolen”). Combined, these features prevent any voting-commitment-talk from being credible.
Merged mining allows the Truthcoin protocol unlimited use of the existing Bitcoin
infrastructure. Once configured, Bitcoin Miners can advance the Truthcoin blockchain for free, and Miners are very likely to configure: they are paid transaction fees (in CashCoin), to advance the Truthcoin blockchain, and these CashCoins are 1:1 redeemable for Bitcoins (via sidechain).Miners are also unlikely to allow any “parasite sidechain” (a sidechain which attempts to steal the Truthcoin oracle results) as this would result in an endless streak of parasites.
Large holders of VoteCoin cannot reliably execute selfish mining24 (by withholding their own votes in an attempt to boost their block’s participation) unless they also control a substantial quantity of hashpower, because cumulative participation is not only a function of the votes included in each block (VTC balance) but also of total number of blocks found.Miners are unlikely to block trades, as they collect transaction fees for every tx
For Markets with Scaled Decisions, Market Authors also receive a refund on their unused seed capital (Fee2). When the Market resolves to an outcome at a bound (minimum or maximum, as all Binary Decisions would), all the seed capital is used, and so the refund is zero, but otherwise this refund may be sizable. This encourages Market Authors to only use (or create) Decisions which have an appropriate range.The total lifetime volume of the InTrade.com Barack 2012 Market was 4.1 million shares, expiring at nearly 2.5 million shares at $10 per share.
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