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Home » Blog » Inflation Is Down — Why Isn’t Crypto Rallying Today?
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Inflation Is Down — Why Isn’t Crypto Rallying Today?

Gixona
Last updated: 20/04/2025 3:46 PM
Gixona
5 months ago
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Disclosure: We are not a registered broker-dealer or an investment advisor. The services and information we offer are for sophisticated investors, and do not constitute personal investment advice, which of necessity must be tailored to your particular means and needs. !
Inflation Is Down — Why Isn’t Crypto Rallying Today?
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The rate of inflation in the U.S. is starting to moderate, which has boosted positive sentiment in the conventional financial markets. Unlike the equities markets, however, another sector is underperforming, and that is cryptocurrency.

Contents
  • Cooling Inflation: The Numbers
  • Crypto Price Snapshot
  • Rate Cuts Still Uncertain
  • Crypto’s Correlation With Tech Is Fading
  • Regulatory Pressures Persist
  • Market Sentiment Is Cautious
  • Halving Hype Has Faded (For Now)
  • Geopolitical Risks
  • What Could Trigger a Rally: Looking Forward
  • Final Thoughts
Inflation Is Down — Why Isn’t Crypto Rallying Today?

Although the equities markets are rising on the back of positive inflation figures, Bitcoin and other key cryptocurrencies have remained stagnant or are even seeing a slight decline.

Cooling Inflation: The Numbers

IndicatorMarch 2025February 2025Year-over-Year Change
CPI (All Items)+3.2%+3.5%Down 0.3%
Core CPI (Excl. Food & Energy)+3.8%+4.0%Down 0.2%
Energy Prices-2.1%-1.3%Down 3.4%

Inflation is clearly slowing, especially in energy and goods, which typically boost risk-on sentiment in markets. Stocks surged on the news — the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, while the Nasdaq climbed 2.3%.

Crypto Price Snapshot

Asset24H ChangeCurrent Price (Apr 19, 2025)
Bitcoin-0.4%$63,850
Ethereum+0.2%$3,120
Solana-1.1%$145.60
XRP-0.6%$0.58

Rate Cuts Still Uncertain

The Federal Reserve’s policy remains cautious because it hasn’t signaled plans to cut rates despite inflation being down.

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Traders expected up to two or three rate cuts in 2025, but skepticism is growing after officials adopted a wait and see mentality. This makes it difficult for crypto which performs best in low-rate environments.

Crypto’s Correlation With Tech Is Fading

For the past few years, the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has been high, but that is changing.

Crypto’s Correlation With Tech Is Fading

This shift might be because of macro movement into traditional sectors, regulatory headwinds, or just the growing up of the cryptocurrency market. In any case, a dropping Nasdaq no longer guarantees dropping crypto, and vice versa.

Regulatory Pressures Persist

This remains an important blocker affecting the market. After the SEC’s offensive against crypto exchanges, DeFi protocols and altcoins, there is so much uncertainty that makes this an unfavorable environment.

Lack of a clear, comprehensive strategy is also a drag on markets since investors feel like they can’t deploy their funds.

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This change might not happen and crypto will continue to struggle in responding to wide-ranging economic data unlike stocks are able to, where equities are far more responsive to the data.

Market Sentiment Is Cautious

Market sentiment continues to be mixed despite positive on-chain data. As per Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the market sits at 52/100 which indicates neutral territory. This suggests that investors are indifferent as they neither seem bullish nor fearful.

At the same time, there seems to be an increase in short positions on Bitcoin and Ethereum, meaning most traders are betting against any upsurge in the near-term.

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Halving Hype Has Faded (For Now)

Bitcoin’s halving event recently took place last week as many tend to view it as a bullish event owing to a reduction in supply poise. But historical data tends to confirm that price surges occur months after the halving.

Technically and fundamentally, investors seem to be waiting for clearer signals before increasing their positions.

Geopolitical Risks

This is another global unknown factor. Eastern Europe and Middle Eastern tensions continue to affect investor sentiment and behavior.

In risk-off environments, decentralized assets like cryptocurrency are also not spared. Capital tends to shift from volatile markets into safer instruments like bonds, gold, or the U.S Dollar.

What Could Trigger a Rally: Looking Forward

What Could Trigger a Rally: Looking Forward

At the moment, crypto may not be responding with great strength, but there are certain factors that could create momentum.

  • A Fed rate cut timeline clarity. – Indications of a June or July rate cut would likely cause a crypto boost.
  • Post-halving narratives. – After Bitcoin’s supply reduction, the expected price increase might occur in Q2 or Q3.

Positive developments concerning ETFs, stablecoin legislative frameworks, or exchange licenses will likely change market sentiment for the better.

  • Better Market Sentiment. – An increase in investment from funds, banks, and public companies could indicate improved institutional confidence.

Final Thoughts

Crypto pairs need not align directly with inflation data, as evidenced by the recent CPI coolant. While it is a move in the right direction, for now it does not appear sufficient to initiate a major rally for digital assets.

A combination of on-chain activity alongside additional regulatory cuts will have investors action-ready. Adjusting crypto price forecasts is prudent in anticipation of the broader macroeconomic climate.

Crypto is highly unlikely to show promising fluctuations in time horizons, especially when the macro visuals are painted a touch brighter.

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